The expanding electoral map

We're all familiar now with the national polls that show McCain getting a large bounce out of the GOP's national convention and now maintaining a slight edge over Obama.  But what's more interesting is the latest updates to individual state polls that have come out.

Many of these polls are beginning to suggest an electoral map with more "blue" states moving into contention...which is the opposite of what we've been hearing would be the case this fall.

A Minnesota Star-Tribune poll has Obama and McCain TIED at 45% each in Minnesota...

The latest Rasmussen poll has them TIED in Pennsylvania...

and has Obama up by only 2 (49% - 47%) in Washington state.

From the latest Quinnipiac poll in New Jersey:

The contest between Barack Obama and John McCain in New Jersey is too close to call, with a new Quinnipiac University poll showing the battle for the state’s fifteen electoral votes at 48%-45% among likely voters.  Obama led McCain by ten percentage points, 51%-41% in an August Quinnipiac poll.

This is the fourth independent poll within the last week to show New Jersey as an emerging battleground state in the presidential campaign.  A Monmouth University/New Jersey poll released this morning shows Obama leading by 8 points, and a Marist College poll released Friday night had identical numbers to Quinnipiac, 48%-45%. A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll from last week had Obama up by six points. … 

And in New York, the latest Siena poll:

Seven weeks until Election Day, the race for President has tightened in New York, with Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) leading Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) 46-41 percent among likely voters, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll released today.  Obama’s five point lead is down from eight points in August, 13 points in July and 18 points in June, when he led 51-33 percent. 

In terms of heartburn, those last two (NJ and NY) should provide some serious heartburn to Democrats.  Not just because these should be "their" states, but because these are among the most expensive media markets in the country.  Meaning they will cost BIG bucks if they have to spend any serious time there on television shoring up what should be Obama's turf.

Meanwhile, in terms of some of the competitive "red states", it looks like Missouri is back in solid GOP territory...Florida looks safer...and McCain has about a 4 point edge in Ohio.

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