PollWatch: 9/12/08

Well, it's Friday...now a full week after the Republican Convention. Enough time to make some rational conclussions on how it may have impacted the race and, with that in mind, we look at today's polls.

From Gallup:

Registered voters continue to express a slight preference for John McCain (48%) over Barack Obama (44%) in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking presidential trial heat. ...

No numbers for likely voters.

From Rasmussen:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows John McCain up by three points, his largest lead since Obama wrapped up the Democratic Presidential Nomination. For most of the past several months, Obama has held a modest lead with McCain slipping ahead by a single point on just three of the past hundred days.

McCain now attracts 48% of the vote while Obama earns 45%. When "leaners" are included, it's McCain 49%, Obama 46%.

And, if that weren't enough, Gallup also has the GOP competitive on the generic ballot question for the first time in....well, a really, really long time.

A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latest USA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters' "generic ballot" preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.

But it get's better. This number was based on "registered voters". When Gallup digs deeper and brings it down to "likely voters"...take a look:

The positive impact of the GOP convention on polling indicators of Republican strength is further seen in the operation of Gallup's "likely voter" model in this survey. Republicans, who are now much more enthused about the 2008 election than they were prior to the convention, show heightened interest in voting, and thus outscore Democrats in apparent likelihood to vote in November. As a result, Republican candidates now lead Democratic candidates among likely voters by 5 percentage points, 50% to 45%.

I'm guessing this number won't be leading the news tonight.

But ask yourself, what significant event has happened in the last several weeks that would account for such a swing? Answer: Palin.