There are some veerrrry, very interesting polls out this week which demonstrate that something is afoot when it comes to voters, their attitudes about health care "reform", Obama, the Democrats and Republicans.
Obama's approval numbers are at another new low:
The latest Presidential public approval poll [8] shows 47% of voters saying they at least "somewhat approve" of the job Obama's doing...while 52% disapprove, the lowest level of support for Obama since he took office. More importantly, the "passion" is with those who disapprove.
The poll shows 29% of voters "strongly approving" of Obama, and 37% "strongly disapproving"...giving him an eight point deficit with the folks that have strong "feelings" about him.
Support for Obamacare is at another new low:
The latest poll [9]on Obama/Pelosi's proposed "reform" shows that support is at a new low. Just 42% of voters now say they favor the plan, (such as it is), and 53% say they are opposed. And the trend is pretty clear. Support is down 5% from two weeks ago, and down 8% from a month and a half a go. Meanwhile, opposition is up 9% in the same timeframe.
Again, the "strong" opinions are with the opposition, with 44% strongly opposing it and 26% strongly favoring it.
And it doesn't seem that the Democrat's new talking point of casting the insurance companies as the villain is going anywhere. Only 25% agree.
More voters trust Republicans on health care for the first time
This is the real headline. With few exceptions, health care has always been a weak spot for the GOP, at least in terms of public opinion. Well, not now [10]. 44% of voters now say they trust the Republicans more on handling health care, (vs. 41% for Democrats). Sure, it's no landslide, but that issue is an indicator of just how bad things are getting for Democrats now, (they led by ten points on that issue in June).
In fact, the Democrats are weaker on the whole "who do you trust" thing in general. Results on other issues: the economy (GOP +6), education (GOP +3), Social Security (GOP +4), taxes (GOP +16), national security (GOP +4), Iraq (tied) and "ethics and corruption" (Dems +3).
All of which pretty much explains the following...
Republicans lead on the congressional "generic ballot"
For the seventh straight week [11], more voters say would vote for a Republican congressional candidate vs. a Democrat, (42% to 38%). Women break 42% to 40% for Democrats, while men break Republican 45% to 35%.
Perhaps more ominous for Democrats, "unaffiliated" voters favor the GOP by a whopping twenty points - 42% to 22%.
And the polling from some individual races is looking interesting as well. Republicans are holding comfortable leads in the upcoming governor's races in Virginia (GOP +9) [12] and New Jersey (GOP +13) [13].
And in a stunning turnaround from just one month ago, likely GOP Pennsylvania senate nominee Pat Toomey now lead [14]s newly minted Democrat Arlen Specter 48% to 36%. In June, Specter lead Toomey by 11%. And given that healthcare has been the biggest issue on the public's radar screen in that timeframe, there's pretty much nothing else to attribute it to.
And again, the passion is with the Obamacare opponents, who support Toomey by 82%, vs. the Obamacare supporters, who support Specter by 70%. Which makes one wonder what ol' Arlen will do when it comes votin' time on health care.
Going forward...
All of this does a good bit to explain why Obama's gone out on the stump circuit holding "town halls" with pre-screened attendees...so much so that (out of a crowd of 1,700 people in New Hampshire) he couldn't find one serious person to ask him one challenging question about his plan...even when he directly asked for one.
It also explains why Obamacare supporters are about to launch a $12 million dollar ad campaign [15]pushing the plan.
And it explains the desperation they've shown in recent weeks, especially when it comes to town-hall meetings, suggesting opposition is "astro-turf" [16] financed by insurance companies (when they're the one's paying "activists" [17]), and suggesting they're "racists" [18], "un-American" [19], or even "political terrorists" [20].
But again, it shows how desperate they are. Which is good news for the country. And it means conservatives should just keep doing exactly what they're doing.
It's working.
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For more on this topic, see my latest column: "Saying NO gives Republicans Mojo [21]"
