We've been overwhelmed w/polls in the last week or so showing The One gaining momentum, with the biggest gain being shown in the Gallup daily tracking poll [7], (which today shows O up by 11 points). But this is misleading.
Remember this: anytime you see or hear poll numbers reported, 1) always take them with a grain of salt, and 2) find out "who" is being polled. In other words, are they "over sampling" Democrats, Republicans or Independents? And are they polling "registered voters" or "likely voters", (registered voters who say they are either "certain" or "likely" to vote).
Well, (surprise, surprise), the poll that shows McCain w/the biggest deficit - and therefore the one that gets all the attention, (Gallup), only polls "registered voters".
By contrast, today's Zogby poll [8] of likely voters shows Obama only up by 2, (47% to 45%).
Obama led McCain by 47 percent to 45 percent in the national poll, within the margin of error of 2.8 percentage points. Obama led by 3 points in Tuesday's poll.
And today's Hotline tracking poll [9] is even closer...Obama by 1. (see trend below)
Notice a trend in these two? It's tightened up in the last several days. Then keep in mind the "Bradley effect". If O's not up by more than 2 on Election Day, we're in for an all-nighter.
And the important (and hopeful) thing to remember is, this campaign has yet to revolve around cultural issues, which is where Obama has his biggest differences with the American people.
For McCain to win, he's got to take it straight to Obama on those issues, (abortion, guns, gay marriage, etc..), and tie ACORN and Fannie & Freddie around his neck. He's got to ignore what will be the deafening cries and complaints from the media that he's "negative campaigning" and "not talking about the issues" and hammer it home.
Let's hope they understand that.
