Mitt Romney doesn’t need to win Ohio to win the presidential election, he needs to do well enough overall that he ends up winning Ohio.  There’s a huge difference.

First, remember that correlation is not causation.  Ohio voters do not cause voters in other states to vote one way or another, such that securing Ohio votes secures votes in other states.  Ohio reflects a larger trend.

The Electoral College scenarios by which Romney can win the election start to proliferate at the point where he’s doing so well generally that the most likely outcomes include him snagging Ohio.  The site 270ToWin reports that there are 161 combinations of swing states Romney can win to reach 270 electoral votes, but that 8 out of the 10 most probable ways involve winning Ohio.  Nonetheless, Romney should concentrate on doing well generally, not spending all his time in Ohio.  read more »