Zogby has released the results from a brand new survey which gives us all a very disturbing insight into the mental capacity of the typical Barack Obama supporter.

The 12-question survey was given to 512 Obama voters, asking them very simple questions regarding the presidential campaign, the nominees, the news, and the scandals which surfaced during the run for the White House.

UTICA, New York -- Just 2% of voters who supported Barack Obama on Election Day obtained perfect or near-perfect scores on a post election test which gauged their knowledge of statements and scandals associated with the presidential tickets during the campaign, a new Zogby International telephone poll shows. Only 54% of Obama voters were able to answer at least half or more of the questions correctly...

The survey and polling tally was conducted by Zogby on behalf of John Ziegler for his project, HowObamaGotElected.com.  For a preview of his documentary that is soon to be released, see the Youtube Video below:

This is really interesting. From today's release of the latest IBD/TIPP poll of likely voters:

McCain has cut into Obama's lead for a second day and is now just 1.1 points behind. The spread was 3.7 Wednesday and 6.0 Tuesday. The Republican is making headway with middle- and working- class voters, and has surged 10 points in two days among those earning between $30,000 and $75,000. He has also gone from an 11-point deficit to a 9-point lead among Catholics.

Now, as mentioned below, these polls are all over the place.  This one, and the AP, show McCain down by one...while the major network polls have him down by double digits...(of course we all KNOW how reliable they usually are).  In fact, the IBD/TIPP poll was the closest to the mark back in 2004.

Of course at this point, any poll is just a snap-shot, and comparing one to another doesn't always work, as they have different sampling methods, etc..  But what you can do is compare the same poll and its trends over time.  And the big news in this poll is in bold print above.  That being that McCain has gained among the "blue-collar" crowd, and has seen a twenty point swing among Catholics in this poll.

That's huge.  And it probably speaks to a few things.  1) That perhaps a good bit of that gain among Catholics in attributable to their cross-categorization w/the blue collar crowd...and 2) the fact that, the closer we get, the more people start to give a hard focus to specific issues.  And what do we know to be a big issue with Catholic voters?  Abortion.

And when you consider that many Catholic Bishops have been speaking out big-time about how Catholics shouldn't vote for pro-abortion politicians, it starts to make sense.  Then remember that Catholics make up a larger percent of the vote in those swing states. 

Maybe that's why McCain's bucking convention wisdom and continuing to campaign in Pennsylvania...and why PA Governor Ed Rendell has been asking the Obama campaign to make more swings through that state.

Well, not that you'll hear too much about it, but the AP came out w/a poll of likely voters yesterday that has Obama leading by only one point. 

WASHINGTON (AP) - The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.

Three weeks ago, an AP-GfK survey found that Obama had surged to a seven-point lead over McCain, lifted by voters who thought the Democrat was better suited to lead the nation through its sudden economic crisis.

Also yesterday, the Battleground tracking poll has it as a 2 point race, (Obama 49%, McCain 47%).

Yes, there are others that have a larger margin, (the RealClearPolitics average is a little above 6 points), but it underscores the point that the race is still volitile and far from over.  That it is tightening, as races tend to do in the closing weeks and, perhaps, that McCain's message is starting to resonate, or that the undecideds are finally taking a closer look at "the One"...and having second thoughts.

I think the fact that McCain's still contesting states like Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, (thought to be out of his reach) attest to the fact that the internal numbers show he's still got a shot.  In fact, reports indicate that Barry's folks know this to be true as well.

We've been overwhelmed w/polls in the last week or so showing The One gaining momentum, with the biggest gain being shown in the Gallup daily tracking poll, (which today shows O up by 11 points).  But this is misleading.

Remember this: anytime you see or hear poll numbers reported, 1) always take them with a grain of salt, and 2) find out "who" is being polled.  In other words, are they "over sampling" Democrats, Republicans or Independents?  And are they polling "registered voters" or "likely voters", (registered voters who say they are either "certain" or "likely" to vote).

Well, (surprise, surprise), the poll that shows McCain w/the biggest deficit - and therefore the one that gets all the attention, (Gallup), only polls "registered voters".

By contrast, today's Zogby poll of likely voters shows Obama only up by 2, (47% to 45%). 

Obama led McCain by 47 percent to 45 percent in the national poll, within the margin of error of 2.8 percentage points. Obama led by 3 points in Tuesday's poll.

And today's Hotline tracking poll is even closer...Obama by 1.  (see trend below)

Notice a trend in these two?  It's tightened up in the last several days.  Then keep in mind the "Bradley effect".  If O's not up by more than 2 on Election Day, we're in for an all-nighter.

And the important (and hopeful) thing to remember is, this campaign has yet to revolve around cultural issues, which is where Obama has his biggest differences with the American people.

For McCain to win, he's got to take it straight to Obama on those issues, (abortion, guns, gay marriage, etc..), and tie ACORN and Fannie & Freddie around his neck.  He's got to ignore what will be the deafening cries and complaints from the media that he's "negative campaigning" and "not talking about the issues" and hammer it home.

Let's hope they understand that.

Pew Research Center has a brand new poll out that reflects some very favorable numbers for the Republicans going into the peak of the election season.

The poll shows that 'independent voters' now have an equally favorable opinion of both parties - 50% to 49% - a 1-point edge actually going to the Republicans.  As recently as August, the Democrats had held an 18-point advantage over the Republicans in this very demographic; a huge gap that had previously held for over a year.

More from Politico on the results:

And half of registered voters overall now have a favorable opinion of the Republican Party, the highest GOP ranking in three years. Slightly more voters, 55 percent, continue to have a favorable view of the Democratic Party.

The GOP convention and the selection of Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate have also generated considerable enthusiasm among the party rank-and-file. Pew found that three in four Republicans express satisfaction with their presidential choice. In June, only half said the same.

The findings come as the Gallup Poll recently found that the Democratic generic lead among voters, when asked which party they prefer to control Congress, has withered to only 3 points, 48 to 45 percent. Democrats had a double-digit generic congressional advantage on the eve of the midterm elections.

The portion of the public that strongly supports the Republican ticket has grown from 17 percent in August to 25 percent today. Over the same period, Republicans expressing “strong support” for McCain jumped 16 points. Independents expressing “strong support” for McCain rose 9 points. Meanwhile, Democratic “strong support” for Obama rose 7 points, while his backing from independents dropped one point. 

The Pew Research polling indicates that the selection of Sarah Palin to the GOP ticket, may have helped John McCain shore up a much larger share of the religious/values voter segment...

Palin’s impact may have also helped McCain firm up the religious vote.

Pew finds that three in four weekly churchgoing Evangelical Protestants back McCain, a slight gain of 3 points since August. McCain has gained more among religious Catholics, however.

Weekly attending Catholics now favor McCain 52 to 36 percent. In August, those same voters only narrowly favored McCain, 45 to 42 percent.

Regarding the female voter, in general, the poll suggests that there has been no huge avalanche of support running over to the McCain side following the Palin selection.  But, there have been gains, again, when considering the female independent voter.  As I've previously stated, the Palin selection wasn't about just trying to 'cherry pick' from the female voting demographic, in general, or the "Hillary Voter", specifically, as many in the media have been trying to label the purpose of her candidacy.  Again, "it is way bigger than that".  This selection goes to making a very long-term ideological statement that resonates with the conservative republican base as well as with independent-minded voters, whose support each election year is up for grabs.  And the new polling seems to indicate that:

Pew found no lopsided shift of women to the Republican candidate, like Gallup, despite some premature reports that Palin’s place on the GOP ticket had caused a rush of female support to McCain.

McCain has gained with independent women, and now trails Obama 40 to 42 percent. In August, McCain trailed 37 to 48 percent with this bloc of women. But those GOP gains are echoed, as Gallup also demonstrated, with independent men. McCain leads with independent men 48 to 35 percent; last month these men only slightly preferred McCain 45 to 42 percent.

As we move closer and closer to November 4th, the momentum clearly seems to be in the favor of McCain-Palin, especially in the key race to shore up support from independents.  There's certainly a lot to be enthusiastic about if you're backing the GOP.

We're all familiar now with the national polls that show McCain getting a large bounce out of the GOP's national convention and now maintaining a slight edge over Obama.  But what's more interesting is the latest updates to individual state polls that have come out.

Many of these polls are beginning to suggest an electoral map with more "blue" states moving into contention...which is the opposite of what we've been hearing would be the case this fall.

A Minnesota Star-Tribune poll has Obama and McCain TIED at 45% each in Minnesota...

The latest Rasmussen poll has them TIED in Pennsylvania...

and has Obama up by only 2 (49% - 47%) in Washington state.

From the latest Quinnipiac poll in New Jersey:

The contest between Barack Obama and John McCain in New Jersey is too close to call, with a new Quinnipiac University poll showing the battle for the state’s fifteen electoral votes at 48%-45% among likely voters.  Obama led McCain by ten percentage points, 51%-41% in an August Quinnipiac poll.

This is the fourth independent poll within the last week to show New Jersey as an emerging battleground state in the presidential campaign.  A Monmouth University/New Jersey poll released this morning shows Obama leading by 8 points, and a Marist College poll released Friday night had identical numbers to Quinnipiac, 48%-45%. A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll from last week had Obama up by six points. … 

And in New York, the latest Siena poll:

Seven weeks until Election Day, the race for President has tightened in New York, with Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) leading Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) 46-41 percent among likely voters, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll released today.  Obama’s five point lead is down from eight points in August, 13 points in July and 18 points in June, when he led 51-33 percent. 

In terms of heartburn, those last two (NJ and NY) should provide some serious heartburn to Democrats.  Not just because these should be "their" states, but because these are among the most expensive media markets in the country.  Meaning they will cost BIG bucks if they have to spend any serious time there on television shoring up what should be Obama's turf.

Meanwhile, in terms of some of the competitive "red states", it looks like Missouri is back in solid GOP territory...Florida looks safer...and McCain has about a 4 point edge in Ohio.

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More: Hot Air - Powerline

Well, it's Friday...now a full week after the Republican Convention.  Enough time to make some rational conclussions on how it may have impacted the race and, with that in mind, we look at today's polls.

From Gallup:

Registered voters continue to express a slight preference for John McCain (48%) over Barack Obama (44%) in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking presidential trial heat. ...

No numbers for likely voters.

From Rasmussen:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows John McCain up by three points, his largest lead since Obama wrapped up the Democratic Presidential Nomination. For most of the past several months, Obama has held a modest lead with McCain slipping ahead by a single point on just three of the past hundred days.

McCain now attracts 48% of the vote while Obama earns 45%. When "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 49%, Obama 46%.

And, if that weren't enough, Gallup also has the GOP competitive on the generic ballot question for the first time in....well, a really, really long time.

A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latest USA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters' "generic ballot" preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.

But it get's better.  This number was based on "registered voters".  When Gallup digs deeper and brings it down to "likely voters"...take a look:

The positive impact of the GOP convention on polling indicators of Republican strength is further seen in the operation of Gallup's "likely voter" model in this survey. Republicans, who are now much more enthused about the 2008 election than they were prior to the convention, show heightened interest in voting, and thus outscore Democrats in apparent likelihood to vote in November. As a result, Republican candidates now lead Democratic candidates among likely voters by 5 percentage points, 50% to 45%.

I'm guessing this number won't be leading the news tonight.

But ask yourself, what significant event has happened in the last several weeks that would account for such a swing?  Answer: Palin.