Behold, the predictive powers of Outpost readers!

Back in the Spring of 2009, we ran a poll asking everyone what they thought Obama's public approval numbers would look like come this Labor day.  A full 82% put him no better than around 40%.

According to Gallup, he was at 43%, and according to Rasmussen, he was at 42%

Not too shabby, considering "The One" was riding high at 60-70% approval at the time, (depending on the poll).

In other words, Outpost readers can see at least a year and a half into the future. Maybe we need to start a Super Bowl poll...then head to Vegas.

Gallup's latest comes with a very interesting statistic.  That being it shows a record high 56% of self-described conservatives responding that they are "more enthusiastic" about voting in the coming election, whereas liberals clock in at 34%.

But the even more interesting item is the trendline of responses for that question over the past 16 years.  As the chart shows, 42% of conservatives were "more enthusiastic" during the "Republican Revolution" of 1994, with liberals again at 34%.  At that time, the conservative advantage on the enthusiasm gap was 8 points, and Repubicans picked up 54 seats in the House of Representatives. 

Now it's 22 points.

In 1994 Republicans had the issues of Democratic House corruption, Hillary care, etc...  Now we have ObamaCare, the "stimulus", bailouts, a projected 20 trillion dollar debt - and now Harry Reid is attempting to throw immigration "reform" / amnesty on to the list.

So much the better.

And what's working to make it even better still is the increased activism among conservatives, and the result it's having on nomination process in many states.  Meaning we've got some REAL conservatives - especially in Senate races - running ahead of the normal establishment types, (Marco Rubio in Florida, or Rand Paul in Kentucky for example).

With a little luck, this coming wave will not just help Republicans pick up a record number of seats, but it will carry a record number of real conservatives into office.  read more »

Of course there are a lot of polls out there, but PPP (Public Policy Polling) is a liberal outfit.  And now even their numbers show "The One" in negative territory...

For the first time in our monthly national surveys Barack Obama's approval rating has slipped into negative territory. 46% of voters in the country approve of the job he's doing while 47% disapprove.

Obama's approval peaked in our polling last May at 55%. Since then his largest declines in popularity have come with whites (from 48% to 36%), independents (from 55% to 43%), and conservatives (24 to 14%). He's also seen a decent drop with moderates from 69 to 61%. With his core groups of support- Democrats, liberals, and racial minorities- he's seen only minimal change in his standing.

The fact that they mention the racial aspect of his polling is interesting, and reminds me of an by Pat Buchanan yesterday, ("Has Obama lost white America?"), which points out that the white vote is turning into Obama's biggest problem...and is likely to be, by default, a big problem forthe Democrats in general this November.

Buchanan writes:

If Republicans will study the returns from Massachusetts, then review the returns from Virginia and New Jersey, light will fall upon the path to victory over Barack Obama in 2012.
    
Obama defeated John McCain by winning the black vote 24 to one, the Hispanic vote two to one and taking a larger share of the white vote, 44 percent, than did John Kerry or Al Gore. As the white vote was three-fourths of the national turnout, Obama coasted to victory.
    
Now consider Massachusetts. In the 2008 election, no less than 79 percent of the voters were white, and Obama carried them by 20 points, winning the state 62 to 36.

We've had plenty of time to observe Obama's slowly but surely declining national poll numbers over the course of this year, as well as the generic congressional ballot numbers that are consistently showing Republicans with a big advantage over Democrats in the "which party woud you vote for" question, (currently up by 7%).  But today we've got a few interesting state polls to take a look at...

Bad news in the KeyStone State 

Despite the fact that he won Pennsylvania by ten points last year (after campaigning there 45 times), Barack Obama is finding the state to be a little less hospitable lately.  The latest poll from that state shows Obama with only a 40% approval rating.  Longtime Senator (and newly minted, up-for-re-election Democrat) Arlen Specter is at an amazingly low 29%, (66% say it's time for a new senator).  It should also be noted that the Keystone State's unemployment numbers (at 8.4%) are two full points LOWER than the national average.  read more »

Just in case it doesn't get they type of news coverage such things usually get (especially when there's a Republican in the White House), I give you the latest Gallup poll:

It gets even better though.  Turns out that, although he's not the first President to hit this mark, he's one of the few who's had his popularity fall this quickly. 

Slipping below 50% before November of the first year in office would represent “the third-fastest drop” since World War II, Gallup reports. Republican Gerald Ford slipped below 50% in his third month as president, Democrat Bill Clinton during his fourth month.

It took Republican President Eisenhower five years to fall below 50% in the public’s eye, Gallup notes. It took both Republican George Bushes about three years. It took Democrat Lyndon Johnson and Republican Richard Nixon more than two years.

You gotta' love it.

Just in case you're tempted to get distracted by all that talk from the White House, Nancy Pelosi, etc. about how all those people showing up at townhall meetings really don't represent America, well it seems the numbers tell a different story:

Self-identified conservatives outnumber self-identified liberals in all 50 states of the union, according to the Gallup Poll.
 
At the same time, more Americans nationwide are saying this year that they are conservative than have made that claim in any of the last four years.

In 2009, 40% percent of respondents in Gallup surveys that have interviewed more than 160,000 Americans have said that they are either "conservative" (31%) or "very conservative" (9%). That is the highest percentage in any year since 2004.

Only 21% have told Gallup they are liberal, including 16% who say they are "liberal" and 5% who say they are "very liberal."
 
Thirty-five percent of Americans say they are moderate.

And, of course, we know that most "moderates" tend to be conservatives who are worried about running afoul of political correctness if they admit it.

The bigger news here?  Every state?  Even California, New York, Massachusetts, etc?  Then again, those states have spent the last few years plagued by out of control spending and/or out of control judges trying to impose gay marriage by fiat.  Which says something about how popular liberalism is.  read more »

The political environment has changed a little since we first put this poll up, so we thought we'd put it out there again.

What do you think will be the result of the fight over health care reform in Washington?  Your options:

• 1) Full blown nationalized/socialized "Obamacare" will become law
• 2) A "compromise" allowing continued free-market insurance along with a "public option" run by the government
• 3) A compromise that places new, heavy regulations on free-market plans, but no "public option"
• 4) Real reform allowing portability, purchase across state lines, expanded choices and maybe some tort reform
• 5) No bill at all, (Obama's "waterloo")

Click here and register your vote and add a comment.

We'll post the results and high-light some of the comments next week.

There are some veerrrry, very interesting polls out this week which demonstrate that something is afoot when it comes to voters, their attitudes about health care "reform", Obama, the Democrats and Republicans.

Obama's approval numbers are at another new low:

The latest Presidential public approval poll shows 47% of voters saying they at least "somewhat approve" of the job Obama's doing...while 52% disapprove, the lowest level of support for Obama since he took office.  More importantly, the "passion" is with those who disapprove.

The poll shows 29% of voters "strongly approving" of Obama, and 37% "strongly disapproving"...giving him an eight point deficit with the folks that have strong "feelings" about him.

Support for Obamacare is at another new low:

The latest poll on Obama/Pelosi's proposed "reform" shows that support is at a new low.  Just 42% of voters now say they favor the plan, (such as it is), and 53% say they are opposed.  And the trend is pretty clear.  Support is down 5% from two weeks ago, and down 8% from a month and a half a go.  Meanwhile, opposition is up 9% in the same timeframe.  read more »

...from 'round the sphere this morning:

Supply means more demand...then rationing

Dick Morris points out the obvious in his latest column:

"Here's a point that's no surprise except to the "reformers": People with insurance use more healthcare.

"President Barack Obama seeks to cover 50 million new people. Where are the extra doctors, nurses, and so on going to come from? Neither the administration nor anyone on the Hill has proposed anything to add to the supply of medical services even as they plan vastly to increase the demand. "

And of course, this will lead down the road to the "r" word that the Dems don't want to talk about...

The tax man cometh...

If you paid even remote attention to the 2008 presidential campaign, you know that the Bamster went out of his way to avoid being tagged with the big spending, big taxing liberal Democrat label, going so far as to promise - repeatedly - that there would be NO tax increaes on his watch for anyone making under $250,000.  The problem is that the people who work for him keep letting the cat out of the bag...

This past Sunday, his chief White House economist, Larry Summers, when asked about the campaign promise, said: “It is never a good idea to absolutely rule things out no matter what”.  About the same time, one of his fellow Obama administration employees, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, was on ABC stating: “We have to bring these deficits down very dramatically. And that’s going to require some very hard choices."  read more »

So what do you think will be the result of the fight over health care reform in Washington?  That's the subject of our latest poll.

Your options:

• 1) Full blown nationalized/socialized "Obamacare" will become law
• 2) A "compromise" allowing continued free-market insurance along with a "public option" run by the government
• 3) A compromise that places new, heavy regulations on free-market plans, but no "public option"
• 4) Real reform allowing portability, purchase across state lines, expanded choices and maybe some tort reform
• 5) No bill at all, (Obama's "waterloo")

Click here and register your vote and add a comment.

We'll report the results next week.