2008

The Chicago Way

Drew McKissick — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 11:03:51 -0400

The RNC has launched a new ad linking O to corrupt Chicago politics. Check it out...then pass it on. (click here or image below: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ST7Og8XI8rM)

Culture, culture, culture

Drew McKissick — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 10:05:11 -0400

Today's Rasmussesn poll shows something interesting. First, the horse-race number has Obama at 50% and McCain at 45%. But that's not what's interesting. Read this:

Among voters who consider economic issues to be the most important voting issue, Obama leads 65% to 31%. Among all other voters, McCain leads 60% to 36%...

So what other issues might people think are important enough to base their vote on this November? Or what other issues are people pre-disposed to care about when it comes to the differences between the candidates? In a nutshell, cultural and character related issues. And thus far in this campaign, cultural issues have pretty much been invisible. And it's telling on the GOP in the polls.

How many of those folks who are supporting Obama because they feel the economy is the "most important thing" know where he stands on salient social issues like abortion and gay marriage? How many know he voted against (multiple times) mandating medical care for infants that survive an abortion procedure? How many know he opposes state marriage amendments (like those that have passed in over 30 states) that define marriage as what it has been since before our country existed - "one man and one woman"?. How many know his positions on the Second Amendment?

The point is that, in any campaign, you want to fight on ground that is favorable to you. And, no matter what McCain may say, no matter what proposals he may offer to "fix" the economy, there is no way on God's green Earth that the media is going to let him gain traction on that issue....and the voters are not disposed to believe the guy who's a member of the "in" party. So you pivot to the issues that they ARE predisposed to agree with you on.

But, for those issues to matter, you've got to TALK about them. It's time to talk about the culture.

Tightening polls?

Drew McKissick — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 13:19:35 -0400

We've been overwhelmed w/polls in the last week or so showing The One gaining momentum, with the biggest gain being shown in the Gallup daily tracking poll, (which today shows O up by 11 points). But this is misleading.

Remember this: anytime you see or hear poll numbers reported, 1) always take them with a grain of salt, and 2) find out "who" is being polled. In other words, are they "over sampling" Democrats, Republicans or Independents? And are they polling "registered voters" or "likely voters", (registered voters who say they are either "certain" or "likely" to vote).

Well, (surprise, surprise), the poll that shows McCain w/the biggest deficit - and therefore the one that gets all the attention, (Gallup), only polls "registered voters".

By contrast, today's Zogby poll of likely voters shows Obama only up by 2, (47% to 45%).

Obama led McCain by 47 percent to 45 percent in the national poll, within the margin of error of 2.8 percentage points. Obama led by 3 points in Tuesday's poll.

And today's Hotline tracking poll is even closer...Obama by 1. (see trend below)

Notice a trend in these two? It's tightened up in the last several days. Then keep in mind the "Bradley effect". If O's not up by more than 2 on Election Day, we're in for an all-nighter.

And the important (and hopeful) thing to remember is, this campaign has yet to revolve around cultural issues, which is where Obama has his biggest differences with the American people.

For McCain to win, he's got to take it straight to Obama on those issues, (abortion, guns, gay marriage, etc..), and tie ACORN and Fannie & Freddie around his neck. He's got to ignore what will be the deafening cries and complaints from the media that he's "negative campaigning" and "not talking about the issues" and hammer it home.

Let's hope they understand that.

VP debate roundup

Drew McKissick — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 09:36:51 -0400

Well the debate everyone was waiting for is over, so now we can get to the tale of the tape and see what everyone had to say about it.

(by the way, my live-blog of the debate is here)

On to the feedback...

* Malkin says "Sarah Rocks!"

She was warm, fresh, funny, confident, energetic, personable, relentless, and on message. She roasted Obama’s flip-flops on the surge and tea-with-dictators declarations, dinged Biden’s bash-Bush rhetoric, challenged the blame-America defeatism of the Left, and exuded the sunny optimism that energized the base in the first place.

McCain has not done many things right. But Sarah Palin proved tonight that the VP risk he took was worth it....

Pause to reflect on this: She matched — and trumped several times — a man who has spent his entire adult life on the political stage, run for president twice, and as he mentioned several times, chairs the Senate Judiciary Committee.

* Ed Morrissey: "Palin hits homerun"

Sarah Palin demonstrated both the wisdom of adding her to the ticket and the folly of the McCain campaign’s press bubble for the last four weeks. Palin was confident, assertive to the point of aggressive, knowledgeable, and open. She repeatedly went after Biden, which is not usually a tactic seen much in VP debates (candidates usually attack the presidential nominees), and Biden had no answer for Palin. On foreign policy, she offered good answers, made only a couple of rhetorical stumbles in segues when she wanted to change the subject, and delivered an exceptionally fine performance. ...

Will this boost McCain’s standing in this race? I think it will, and I thought that even before I saw the Frank Luntz focus group. McCain needed this debate victory tonight, and it may restart the Palin phenomenon, just in time for the final stretch of the election. This time, though, the McCain campaign has to get Palin out in press conferences, interviews, and contact with the people. She’s sharp, able, and energetic, and she could win this election for McCain if he would just let her.

* The Next Right: "Sarah is back"

Tonight, Sarah Palin was sharp, articulate, and connected with the middle class. The #1 political effect tonight will have is an important one for the McCain campaign: she shut the doubters up, and then some. In this important sense, she stopped the bleeding. I suspect that a very tough couple of weeks ends tonight, and it will be up to John McCain to get the comeback going next Tuesday.

Conservative weak sisters like Kathleen Parker and David Brooks can turn their pens in another direction. Tonight, they've been silenced. ...

Palin can no longer be defined as a liability in any meaningful political or analytical sense. Her claim to leadership in the next Right stands stronger than ever.

* National Review: "Palin's Triumph"

Gov. Sarah Palin, once again, confounded her critics with a strong performance. She did it at the Republican convention, and she did it again last night in her debate with Sen. Joe Biden. She performed with poise and charm. She effectively made the case that Senator Obama would be naïve in foreign policy and harmful to economic growth, and that Senator McCain would be a common-sense reformer. She handled questions about Iraq, Afghanistan, and Iran well. She connected domestic-policy arguments to the lives of average voters. Anyone who hoped — or feared — that she would fall flat on her face was proven wrong.

* Roger Simon (via the Politico): "You betcha Sarah can debate"

Sarah Palin was supposed to fall off the stage at her vice presidential debate Thursday evening. Instead, she ended up dominating it.

She not only kept Joe Biden on the defensive for much of the debate, she not only repeatedly attacked Barack Obama, but she looked like she was enjoying herself while doing it. ...

Criticizing Obama for saying he would meet with some foreign leaders who are hostile to the United States, Palin said: “Some of these dictators hate America and what we stand for. They cannot be met with. That is beyond bad judgment. That is dangerous.”

* Powerline: "Grand Slam"

Given Governor Palin's performance, Biden had an impossible assignment. He made things worse with his inappropriate grins and grimaces while Palin was speaking, much like Al Gore in 2000, only worse. Palin, in contrast, kept a steady demeanor while Biden was taking shots at her, like a pro. Throughout, she commanded the stage and displayed more poise and confidence than her opponent.

* Even the NY Times had to say something nice and not completely ignore reality:

Gov. Sarah Palin made it through the vice-presidential debate on Thursday without doing any obvious damage to the Republican presidential ticket. By surviving her encounter with Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. and quelling some of the talk about her basic qualifications for high office, she may even have done Senator John McCain a bit of good, freeing him to focus on the other troubles shadowing his campaign.

You just know it hurt those guys to write anything like that....

More:

* The Luntz focus group, (showing an overwhelming opinion of Palin as the winner) is here.

* K-Lo: Doggone-it, She Winked!

* Gateway Pundit has some nice photos from the Palin debate "after party", featuring about 10,000 people

* Byron York: "Sarah Palin, the winner by a wink"

* Stop the ACLU: Peggy Noonan and David Brooks eat crow

* Polipundit: Hockey mom Palin scores the hat trick

* Wizbang: WOW! Palin shock and awe

New McCain video exposes the REAL problem

Drew McKissick — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 16:51:28 -0400

Just saw this and it was too good not to pass on. McCain's folks are FINALLY working to turn this thing to their advantage by focusing on the root of the problem that got us into this mess....which brings us right back to the Democrats.

(click image below or the following link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2RZ0sUcVcE)

Fantastic. And using Bubba to indict the Democrats in Congress is a nice touch.

Pass it on.

The expanding electoral map

Drew McKissick — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 12:00:09 -0400

We're all familiar now with the national polls that show McCain getting a large bounce out of the GOP's national convention and now maintaining a slight edge over Obama. But what's more interesting is the latest updates to individual state polls that have come out.

Many of these polls are beginning to suggest an electoral map with more "blue" states moving into contention...which is the opposite of what we've been hearing would be the case this fall.

A Minnesota Star-Tribune poll has Obama and McCain TIED at 45% each in Minnesota...

The latest Rasmussen poll has them TIED in Pennsylvania...

and has Obama up by only 2 (49% - 47%) in Washington state.

From the latest Quinnipiac poll in New Jersey:

The contest between Barack Obama and John McCain in New Jersey is too close to call, with a new Quinnipiac University poll showing the battle for the state’s fifteen electoral votes at 48%-45% among likely voters. Obama led McCain by ten percentage points, 51%-41% in an August Quinnipiac poll.

This is the fourth independent poll within the last week to show New Jersey as an emerging battleground state in the presidential campaign. A Monmouth University/New Jersey poll released this morning shows Obama leading by 8 points, and a Marist College poll released Friday night had identical numbers to Quinnipiac, 48%-45%. A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll from last week had Obama up by six points. …

And in New York, the latest Siena poll:

Seven weeks until Election Day, the race for President has tightened in New York, with Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) leading Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) 46-41 percent among likely voters, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll released today. Obama’s five point lead is down from eight points in August, 13 points in July and 18 points in June, when he led 51-33 percent.

In terms of heartburn, those last two (NJ and NY) should provide some serious heartburn to Democrats. Not just because these should be "their" states, but because these are among the most expensive media markets in the country. Meaning they will cost BIG bucks if they have to spend any serious time there on television shoring up what should be Obama's turf.

Meanwhile, in terms of some of the competitive "red states", it looks like Missouri is back in solid GOP territory...Florida looks safer...and McCain has about a 4 point edge in Ohio.

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More: Hot Air - Powerline

PollWatch: 9/12/08

Drew McKissick — Fri, 12 Sep 2008 14:25:06 -0400

Well, it's Friday...now a full week after the Republican Convention. Enough time to make some rational conclussions on how it may have impacted the race and, with that in mind, we look at today's polls.

From Gallup:

Registered voters continue to express a slight preference for John McCain (48%) over Barack Obama (44%) in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking presidential trial heat. ...

No numbers for likely voters.

From Rasmussen:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows John McCain up by three points, his largest lead since Obama wrapped up the Democratic Presidential Nomination. For most of the past several months, Obama has held a modest lead with McCain slipping ahead by a single point on just three of the past hundred days.

McCain now attracts 48% of the vote while Obama earns 45%. When "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 49%, Obama 46%.

And, if that weren't enough, Gallup also has the GOP competitive on the generic ballot question for the first time in....well, a really, really long time.

A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latest USA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters' "generic ballot" preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.

But it get's better. This number was based on "registered voters". When Gallup digs deeper and brings it down to "likely voters"...take a look:

The positive impact of the GOP convention on polling indicators of Republican strength is further seen in the operation of Gallup's "likely voter" model in this survey. Republicans, who are now much more enthused about the 2008 election than they were prior to the convention, show heightened interest in voting, and thus outscore Democrats in apparent likelihood to vote in November. As a result, Republican candidates now lead Democratic candidates among likely voters by 5 percentage points, 50% to 45%.

I'm guessing this number won't be leading the news tonight.

But ask yourself, what significant event has happened in the last several weeks that would account for such a swing? Answer: Palin.

Sarah Palin on Linked-in

Drew McKissick — Fri, 12 Sep 2008 10:34:23 -0400

First off, for those of you that don't know, Linked-in is an online networking site for professionals. Sort of like Facebook for business, I suppose. I've had a profile on there for about a year now. My profile is here.

I just received a note this morning from one of the people in my Linked-in network pointing out that Sarah Palin now has a Linked-in profile as well, which is impressive from a campaign perspective. Just about every campaign now has a Facebook and My Space profile...but Linked-in is something I haven't really seen much of among candidates so far, so this tells me someone's thinking straight over at campaign headquarters.

Here profile is here. It states in part:

"My fellow Americans, come join our cause. Join our cause and help our country to elect a great man the next president of the United States. And I thank you, and I -- God bless you, I say, and God bless America. Thank you."

Sarah Palin’s Specialties:

Attacking "business as usual," Oil Companies, Good Old Boy Networks, Government waste, Earmarks, and Pork Barrels. Strong experience within the Executive Branch of Government.

With each new campaign season, campaigns are finding it more and more useful (and necessary) to participate in our increasingly "networked" world...and that means making themselves available where the voters are.

Batten down the hatches Sarah!

Drew McKissick — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 12:20:33 -0400

The game has changed. In an election of McCain vs. Obama, the race was all about Obama. Not anymore.

Win or lose, picking Sarah Palin will go down as the greatest single thing McCain has done for his own campaign, as well as for the conservative movement. Conservatives are rallying like never before to her presence on the ticket.

She’s a fiscal conservative who favors tax cuts and has actually used a veto pen. She’s a born-again Christian, pro-life, pro-family, pro-gun…she hunts, she fishes, baits her own hook, has five kids and doesn’t look like a member of the NOW gang. What’s not to like? Indeed, that, plus a record of conservative reform and demonstrated political skills on the stump and I’d say we’ve got ourselves a star. And at age 44, one with a potentially long future at that.

While attending the convention, one of my fellow delegates remarked that his young daughter, after seeing her speak, said that she was glad McCain picked a “regular” woman, and not one of those “angry women” – presumably teen-speak for an angry feminist.

She’s a conservative reformer with a smile, which makes it harder to morph her into a snarling Grinch, as the media prefers to do with conservatives.

For McCain, this was a pick that made sense in so many ways.

• First, up until his picking Palin, conservatives were focused not on him, but on their opposition to Obama’s liberal issue positions and their hopes for conservative nominees to the federal bench.

• Picking a pro-choice running mate would have divided the Republicans at worst (and guaranteed a loss this November), or left conservatives voting, but not working for McCain at best.

• McCain had been gaining support among conservatives with promises to pick judicial nominees in the mold of Antonin Scalia and John Roberts. Had he picked a pro-choice running mate, that promise would have had no credence with conservatives. The Palin pick gives them more confidence in that promise.

• Palin also helps McCain wrest some of the “change” mantle from Obama – a designation Obama has pretty much bet his entire campaign on.

• Finally, her presence in the race diminishes the novelty of Obama’s candidacy.
Politically, she’s a threat to liberal dominance of the so-called “gender gap”, which has women supporting Democrats over Republicans in past elections by an average of five to ten points. Palin does nothing if not improve that take, and there’s no chance she loses any of McCain’s share among male voters, (that whole “guy’s gal” thing).

In other words, she’s a dagger aimed right at the heart of the liberal political base, and they know it. And they’ll do everything they can to take her down.
Dozens of liberal political operatives have descended on Alaska looking to uncover (or invent) any dirt they possibly can on Governor Palin.

Their first line was to attack her experience…until they remembered Obama’s experience. They attacked her for being pro-life. They attacked her for having a child with Down syndrome. They lamented her seventeen year old daughter for her decision to get married in light of her pregnancy. They have attacked her for supporting the Second Amendment. And now they are attacking her religious beliefs as a born-again Christian, (she’s a radical!).

The liberal media attacks have been so overboard that even MSNBC had to take two of its leading anchors off of election coverage. (How over the top do you have to be to get canned by MSNBC?)

The irony of the media’s withering attacks on Palin between the day she was announced and the day of her acceptance speech is that they assured she would have a tremendous (if curious) prime-time audience to speak to. Worse yet for liberals, the American people liked what they saw, (her approval numbers are higher than either McCain’s or Obama’s)

The other risk to liberals? Much like Clarence Thomas did for blacks, Sarah Palin proves to other women that you don’t need liberals, liberalism or government to make it in life. That being the case, the left has a greater interest in destroying her than any other Presidential or Vice-Presidential pick in history.

Batten down the hatches, Sarah. We haven’t seen anything yet.

Poll watch: 8/20

Drew McKissick — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 10:34:23 -0400

Although Zogby is not my favorite pollster...or the most reliable in my opinion...his new numbers are interesting. From Reuters:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - In a sharp turnaround, Republican John McCain has opened a 5-point lead on Democrat Barack Obama in the U.S. presidential race and is seen as a stronger manager of the economy, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

McCain leads Obama among likely U.S. voters by 46 percent to 41 percent, wiping out Obama's solid 7-point advantage in July and taking his first lead in the monthly Reuters/Zogby poll.

So what's been happening? McCain's been doing what we've all said needed to happen - define Obama. The guy was a blank slate. So many people supporting him because he represented "change"...just not really knowing what that meant. Well, now, McCain's campaign has been working to fill in the blanks.

One noteable turnaround that demonstrates that point shows McCain has taken the lead in "who would best handle the economy"...

McCain now has a 9-point edge, 49 percent to 40 percent, over Obama on the critical question of who would be the best manager of the economy -- an issue nearly half of voters said was their top concern in the November 4 presidential election.

That margin reversed Obama's 4-point edge last month on the economy over McCain...

And what big economic issue has dominated the news lately? Energy. Specifically, oil and gas prices. And what has been the GOP message? Drill for more...here. Now. More to the point, the GOP's done a better job pushing a "nationalistic" approach to energy...as in, we need to do more of "everything" right here in America. Politically, that's a can't lose proposition. And McCain's numbers show it.

The LA Times, Rasmussen and Gallup all have it at a statistical tie, (with a one point Obama advantage).

One has to wonder how much this kind of thing is figuring into Obama's choice of a running mate...and whether or not it's pushing him more towards a Hillary pick. (Can't imagine the "voices" in his head right now on that subject...).

As I said, Zogby not the most reliable in my book. But what his poll does show is movement...and that McCain's been doing the right things and moving in the right direction.

Obama's sure to get a bounce out of their convention next week. Of course we all thought we would be getting blown out at this point, so maybe the "bounce" won't be so big. Either way, McCain's doing the right thing by making his VP pick the day after Obama's acceptance speech. Let's just hope the "pick" itself keeps things headed in the right direction.

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