Pew Research Center has a brand new poll out that reflects some very favorable numbers for the Republicans going into the peak of the election season.

The poll shows that 'independent voters' now have an equally favorable opinion of both parties - 50% to 49% - a 1-point edge actually going to the Republicans.  As recently as August, the Democrats had held an 18-point advantage over the Republicans in this very demographic; a huge gap that had previously held for over a year.

More from Politico on the results:

And half of registered voters overall now have a favorable opinion of the Republican Party, the highest GOP ranking in three years. Slightly more voters, 55 percent, continue to have a favorable view of the Democratic Party.

The GOP convention and the selection of Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate have also generated considerable enthusiasm among the party rank-and-file. Pew found that three in four Republicans express satisfaction with their presidential choice. In June, only half said the same.

The findings come as the Gallup Poll recently found that the Democratic generic lead among voters, when asked which party they prefer to control Congress, has withered to only 3 points, 48 to 45 percent. Democrats had a double-digit generic congressional advantage on the eve of the midterm elections.

The portion of the public that strongly supports the Republican ticket has grown from 17 percent in August to 25 percent today. Over the same period, Republicans expressing “strong support” for McCain jumped 16 points. Independents expressing “strong support” for McCain rose 9 points. Meanwhile, Democratic “strong support” for Obama rose 7 points, while his backing from independents dropped one point. 

The Pew Research polling indicates that the selection of Sarah Palin to the GOP ticket, may have helped John McCain shore up a much larger share of the religious/values voter segment...

Palin’s impact may have also helped McCain firm up the religious vote.

Pew finds that three in four weekly churchgoing Evangelical Protestants back McCain, a slight gain of 3 points since August. McCain has gained more among religious Catholics, however.

Weekly attending Catholics now favor McCain 52 to 36 percent. In August, those same voters only narrowly favored McCain, 45 to 42 percent.

Regarding the female voter, in general, the poll suggests that there has been no huge avalanche of support running over to the McCain side following the Palin selection.  But, there have been gains, again, when considering the female independent voter.  As I've previously stated, the Palin selection wasn't about just trying to 'cherry pick' from the female voting demographic, in general, or the "Hillary Voter", specifically, as many in the media have been trying to label the purpose of her candidacy.  Again, "it is way bigger than that".  This selection goes to making a very long-term ideological statement that resonates with the conservative republican base as well as with independent-minded voters, whose support each election year is up for grabs.  And the new polling seems to indicate that:

Pew found no lopsided shift of women to the Republican candidate, like Gallup, despite some premature reports that Palin’s place on the GOP ticket had caused a rush of female support to McCain.

McCain has gained with independent women, and now trails Obama 40 to 42 percent. In August, McCain trailed 37 to 48 percent with this bloc of women. But those GOP gains are echoed, as Gallup also demonstrated, with independent men. McCain leads with independent men 48 to 35 percent; last month these men only slightly preferred McCain 45 to 42 percent.

As we move closer and closer to November 4th, the momentum clearly seems to be in the favor of McCain-Palin, especially in the key race to shore up support from independents.  There's certainly a lot to be enthusiastic about if you're backing the GOP.

The game has changed.  In an election of McCain vs. Obama, the race was all about Obama.  Not anymore.

Win or lose, picking Sarah Palin will go down as the greatest single thing McCain has done for his own campaign, as well as for the conservative movement.  Conservatives are rallying like never before to her presence on the ticket.

She’s a fiscal conservative who favors tax cuts and has actually used a veto pen.  She’s a born-again Christian, pro-life, pro-family, pro-gun…she hunts, she fishes, baits her own hook, has five kids and doesn’t look like a member of the NOW gang.  What’s not to like?  Indeed, that, plus a record of conservative reform and demonstrated political skills on the stump and I’d say we’ve got ourselves a star.  And at age 44, one with a potentially long future at that.

While attending the convention, one of my fellow delegates remarked that his young daughter, after seeing her speak, said that she was glad McCain picked a “regular” woman, and not one of those “angry women” – presumably teen-speak for an angry feminist.

She’s a conservative reformer with a smile, which makes it harder to morph her into a snarling Grinch, as the media prefers to do with conservatives.

For McCain, this was a pick that made sense in so many ways.

• First, up until his picking Palin, conservatives were focused not on him, but on their opposition to Obama’s liberal issue positions and their hopes for conservative nominees to the federal bench.

• Picking a pro-choice running mate would have divided the Republicans at worst (and guaranteed a loss this November), or left conservatives voting, but not working for McCain at best.

• McCain had been gaining support among conservatives with promises to pick judicial nominees in the mold of Antonin Scalia and John Roberts.  Had he picked a pro-choice running mate, that promise would have had no credence with conservatives.  The Palin pick gives them more confidence in that promise.

• Palin also helps McCain wrest some of the “change” mantle from Obama – a designation Obama has pretty much bet his entire campaign on.

• Finally, her presence in the race diminishes the novelty of Obama’s candidacy.
Politically, she’s a threat to liberal dominance of the so-called “gender gap”, which has women supporting Democrats over Republicans in past elections by an average of five to ten points.  Palin does nothing if not improve that take, and there’s no chance she loses any of McCain’s share among male voters, (that whole “guy’s gal” thing).

In other words, she’s a dagger aimed right at the heart of the liberal political base, and they know it.  And they’ll do everything they can to take her down.
Dozens of liberal political operatives have descended on Alaska looking to uncover (or invent) any dirt they possibly can on Governor Palin.

Their first line was to attack her experience…until they remembered Obama’s experience.  They attacked her for being pro-life.  They attacked her for having a child with Down syndrome.  They lamented her seventeen year old daughter for her decision to get married in light of her pregnancy.  They have attacked her for supporting the Second Amendment.  And now they are attacking her religious beliefs as a born-again Christian, (she’s a radical!).

The liberal media attacks have been so overboard that even MSNBC had to take two of its leading anchors off of election coverage.  (How over the top do you have to be to get canned by MSNBC?)

The irony of the media’s withering attacks on Palin between the day she was announced and the day of her acceptance speech is that they assured she would have a tremendous (if curious) prime-time audience to speak to.  Worse yet for liberals, the American people liked what they saw, (her approval numbers are higher than either McCain’s or Obama’s) 

The other risk to liberals?  Much like Clarence Thomas did for blacks, Sarah Palin proves to other women that you don’t need liberals, liberalism or government to make it in life.  That being the case, the left has a greater interest in destroying her than any other Presidential or Vice-Presidential pick in history.

Batten down the hatches, Sarah.  We haven’t seen anything yet.

Now that the dust has settled and all the reviews have come in, it is clear that Sarah Palin had a stellar performance during last night's convention coverage.  Most all political analysts across the board agree that, not only did she do exactly what she needed to do during her presentation, but she did it with an exact precision that would be impossible improve upon. Further adding to the impact of the Palin speech and the ramifications it is sure to have on the dynamics of this presidential campaign, the Nielson ratings have now come in from last night and 37.2 Million viewers across America were introduced to the Republican vice-presidential nominee while giving one of the most highly praised political performances in recent memory.

During FoxNews' analysis of her speech, with a laugh, Chris Wallace had to remind longtime Democratic Party operative and current FoxNews contributor, Howard Wolfson, that the reason he is getting paid by FoxNews is to offer criticism and disagreement directed towards the opposing Republican Party, their candidates, and elected officials.  Wolfson said, “Well, I think Senator Biden’s got to bring his 'A Game' when he comes to this debate. She gave a heck of a speech and what I was particularly impressed with was her ability to stick the knife into Barack Obama with a smile, do it effectively. She was very, very good.”

Of course, over at MSNBC, Keith Olbermann did not appear to shed any tears brought on by her speech, as appeared to occur last week in Denver following Obama's words at Mile High Stadium.  But, that wasn't really to be expected anyway.  There was actually a point though during MSNBC's coverage though, that I was seriously expecting some more sparks to fly between Olbermann and Chris Matthews.  There was a point during the speech deconstruction where Matthews in heaping a surprisingly amount of praise for Palin stated that her presentation had an aura of a "Norma Rae" type of empowerment to it, whereafter Matthews quiped that, perhaps, it was a combination of Norma Rae and "Tracy Flick", as portrayed by Reece Witherspoon in the movie, "Election".  Anyone familiar with that film is aware just how much of a snarky comment that was.  With Matthews and Olberman just a few days removed from some serious on-air friction, I really thought for a second there Matthews was going to mix it up again with his on-air partner, with such a quick, sarcastic retort to the highly analytical and vast amount of praise he had just  devoted to Sarah Palin. 

So, despite such a commanding and poised performance to which she is being credited, it still doesn't look like some in the media are prepared to give up on the pettiness and cheap shots.  And that may just play into the Republican ticket's favor.  It's not really certain how much that "us versus the media" factor can play into the success of a presidential campaign.  It didn't end up working for George H.W. Bush in 1992, but some say it was affective for Richard Nixon in 1968.  It's unclear this early how the media's handling of Governor Palin is going to end up playing out in the longrun. 

Though, we do have an early indication from Rasmussen that seems to indicate that the American voter is not taking the actions of the media in a positive manner, at all.

Over half of U.S. voters (51%) think reporters are trying to hurt Sarah
Palin with their news coverage, and 24% say those stories make them
more likely to vote for Republican presidential candidate John McCain in November.

Thirty-nine percent (39%) also believe the GOP vice presidential nominee has better experience to be president of the United States than Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama.

Wow.  51% of American voters not only think that our major news media is being unfair to Sarah Palin; they actually believe that they are essentially trying to hurt Sarah Palin.  That seems to be a pretty clear indication that the perception is pretty strong about what we already know about the liberal press.  

As occurred last night, it was to the advantage of McCain-Palin to go into last night from the position of underdog.  It surely seemed to draw the crowds to watch what was to be said in reaction to the events of the last week.  If the media doesn't get their acts together and start acting like legitimate journalists, those numbers tuning in could equally relate to the numbers that take to the polls in November by way of a backlash to their clearly unfair actions we've seen to date.

***

Update: From StopTheACLU we have a bit of number crunching of the Nielson ratings that have been reported from last night.

* The Sara Palin speech generated 37.2 million viewers, just a 1.1
million viewers short of Barak Obama’s record-breaking speech on Day 4
of the Democratic Convention. The Palin speech was carried on only six
networks while the Obama speech was carried on ten (including BET, TV
One, Univision and Telemundo).

* Palin attracted a large female audience (19.5 million women, or 4.9 million more than Day 3 of the Democratic Convention).

* Ratings for viewers 55+ (25.2) continue to be about ten times higher than for teens (2.2)

* Day 3 for the GOP attracted more Hispanic viewers (1.4 million)
than Day 3 of the Democratic Convention (1.2 million), even though
Univision and Telemundo did not carry the speech.

 Very interesting stuff, indeed.

Day one is here, and the first thing on the agenda is Gustav watch.  As a result of the storm's arrival, the first day's convention schedule was cut short and will run from 2:30 to 5:30...which means no primetime coverage tonight.  Not sure what's planned to try and take up the slack from a message standpoint, but we'll see.  We're assuming there will be a video message from Bush, given that he was supposed to speak tonight.

In the meatime, still get great reaction to the Palin pick for VP.  Haven't run into anyone, whether RNC members, delegates or just conservative leaders in general that have any problem with it.  Quite the opposite in fact.  They're pretty much ecstatic and think it's a homerun, and I tend to agree.

She checks so many of the boxes that we need - and McCain especially needed - in a running mate.  And the demographic angle gives the Dems fits.  She's sort of like a Swiss Army knife of candidates - she's got a little bit of everything. 

The other important thing about this pick is that it gives social conservatives a high level of confidence now in what type of judges McCain would appoint to the judiciary.  Picking the wrong person here would have undermined any faith in his promises to appoint judges like Alito and Roberts.  And given that the next President will likely be able to appoint one to three members of the high court, that issue is what will move conservatives to work on behalf of the ticket more so that anything else this fall.

It's like a political version of "Survivor".  All we've been hearing is who's been "voted off the island", so to speak.  Pawlenty tells a reporter it's not him.  Fox reports that Romney's nowhere near Ohio and not going there.  So the former top two picks are out.

But now we hear that Alaska Governor Sarah Palin flew from Alaska overnight with two of her boys.  Could it be Palin?  Sure.  She's a solid, pro-life, pro-family conservative.  Picking her avoids ticking off Romney people by picking Huckabee...avoids ticking off Huckabee people by picking Romney, etc...  But she is a first term governor.  But then again, she IS a governor.  And would be the only person on the ticket with chief executive experience.

And then there's the obvious.  She's a "she".  Which is aimed straight at the women out there who really wanted to see a woman on somebody's ticket...and are put out with Obama for not taking Billary.  Which means Barry will spend the next few days being asked if he regrets not putting her on the ticket now.

And it would have the virtue of countering Obama's "first" (as in first black nominee), with the potential of the first female vice-president.

It would also be fun to watch Joe Biden try and attack a woman in a debate.

Personally, I still would have gone with Mitt.  I think he brings more to the economic debate because of his experience.  But Palin would be a solid (and strategic) choice.

More to come.

UPDATE:

Palin gave a great speech I thought.  Really made a good impression (which is crucial right now, since she has such a low national profile).  And did a good job showing herself to be a real conservative and a real reformer.

This does put the Dems in a bit of a box now.  How do you attack her?  Surely not for inexperience, as it just highlights Obama's own inexperience.

I'm up in Minneapolis for the Republican National Committee meetings this week, leading up to next week's convention and will be blogging daily while I'm up here.  I've also set up a Twitter feed (sign up here) so I can pass things along between trips to the hotel room...and a Flickr feed to pass along some interesting photos.  Those will be available up at the top of the homepage for the next two weeks, so check back often for updates.

For the next few days I'll be working with fellow RNC members to try and reform our primary schedule for the 2012 primaries and beyond.  The general consensus is that, with so many states continuing to rush to the front of the calendar in each cycle, we're moving towards what will soon be tantamount to a national primary - which pretty much everyone agrees is an awful idea.  (I've written more on that previously here and here).  The problem is getting enough states to agree on the solution.

The Rules Committee meets today, so more on that later.

In the meantime, we're having a great time watching the entertainment from Denver...and waiting to see if Bubba continues to stick it to Obama tonight.

Stay tuned.

(Don't forget, you can sign up for the daily email summary feed from Feedburner, if you'd rather have these updates sent to your inbox)

We've had over 1,500 people participate in the GOP "Veepstakes Survey" so far and there's only 3 days left to have your say.  We'll be totaling up the results and announcing them this coming Monday morning.

So, if you haven't yet, take the survey and let us know your opinion.  Who do YOU think McCain should pick as his running mate?  Who shouldn't he pick?  What issues are most important to you? 

Click here to participate!

Latest comments and numbers from the trail... 

Karl Rove sees the key battleground coming down to 4 states:

Other states will see serious competition, including Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire, Missouri and Wisconsin. But Colorado, Virginia, Michigan and Ohio are likely to be the center of the action. To win, Mr. Obama needs to pick up 18 electoral votes more than John Kerry received, meaning Mr. Obama must carry Colorado or Virginia and add another small state to his column. If Mr. McCain carries Michigan as well as Ohio, it would make Mr. Obama's Electoral College math very difficult. And if Mr. McCain can limit GOP losses to one or two small states from those won by the GOP in 2004, he'll be America's 44th president.

The latest polls:

Rasmussen puts it this way:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 43% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 46%

The race for the White House remains remarkably stable. With leaners, Obama’s support has stayed between 46% and 48% every day for the past two weeks. During that same time frame, McCain has been at 46% or 47% every day.

Even the favorable numbers are neck-and-neck at 55% for McCain and 54% for Obama.

From Gallup:

Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 10-12 gives Barack Obama a six percentage point lead over John McCain in the race for president, 48% to 42% among national registered voters. 

From Pew:

With less than two weeks to go before the start of the presidential nominating conventions, Barack Obama's lead over John McCain has disappeared. Pew's latest survey finds 46% of registered voters saying they favor or lean to the putative Democratic candidate, while 43% back his likely Republican rival. In late June, Obama held a comfortable 48%-to-40% margin over McCain, which narrowed in mid-July to 47% to 42%.

Pew also notes that McCain's gains have come from consolidating GOP support...while the Dems - meaning former Hillary supporters - haven't closed ranks quite as much for him.  (No wonder he doesn't want that roll-call in Denver).

Keep in mind that Rasmussen polls "likely" voters...Gallup and Pew, just "registered" voters.

Meanwhile, it appears that the drilling issue continues to cut well for Republicans and is gaining traction.

Veepstakes:

McCain doesn't "rule out" Ridge:

Republican John McCain says he has not ruled out choosing Pennsylvania's popular former Gov. Tom Ridge as a running mate despite his support for abortion rights, a hot-button issue that could inflame some voters among the party's conservative base. 

Malkin sees a trial balloon.  Urges conservatives to visit McCain's blog and shoot it down.  Ditto.  Just when the polls show the base coming around, the last thing you need to do is punch them in the gut.  Yes, yes, we know we have pro-choicers in the party that we need to "work with", etc..., but that doesn't mean you put them in key leadership positions...much less potentially make them Vice-President and give them a leg up on future leadership of the party.

The Michigan GOP'ers want Romney.

John McCain came to Michigan on Wednesday to raise money. But some Michigan Republicans had another agenda: lobbying for native son and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney as McCain's running mate.

U.S. Rep. Joe Knollenberg, for example, once a Romney-for-president supporter who faces a tough re-election battle in the fall, said he was going to recommend Romney to McCain. He is among Republicans who believe Romney would not only help put McCain over the top in Michigan — a key state this fall — but also could boost Republican candidates down the ticket.

Romney "could really help things here and (in) four or five other states in the Midwest," Knollenberg said at a McCain fundraiser in West Bloomfield.

They're right, (IMHO).  For all the talk about how Romney's Mormonism might hurt McCain with evangelicals, I don't buy it.  Those folks (myself included) are more apt to focus on the social issue positions of the candidates when it's all said and done.  Further, I don't think you can point to a single state where Romney might "cost" McCain enough votes to lose...whereas you can more easily point to a few he might help make competitive.

Meanwhile, the Dems have picked former VA Governor and Senate candidate Mark Warner for their keynote address...which some think diminishes the chances that the Veep will be current VA governor Kaine.  Fine by me.

And the speculation continues over whether or not Powell will endorse Barry O.  (That's loyalty for you)

***

More: Sister Toldjah - The Fix - Polipundit - Hot Air - Outside the Beltway - WaPo

Just one week left to take our GOP "Veepstakes" survey and particpate in the summer's most popular guessing game.

Who do YOU think McCain should pick as his running mate?  Who shouldn't he pick?  What issues are most important to you? 

Click here to participate!

UPDATE: click here to follow the campaign to support the House Republicans and the "don't go" movement on twitter, (#dontgo). 

Unless you've been living under a rock, you probably know that energy policy has become a big issue lately.  And you don't need to look any further than the gas pump to know that it has a huge impact on our economy.

Well, now the Republicans have finally gotten their act together and taken the bull by the horns, so to speak, and are promoting an "all of the above" strategy to solve our energy problems.  It's called the American Energy Act, (H.R. 6566).

In short, it really does seek to do "all of the above" when it comes to addressing our energy needs.  Meaning, all of the proposed solutions that have been offered - more drilling, more refineries, more nuclear, more wind, more solar, more hydrogen research, more conservation, more tax incentives, etc...

It's one of those "about time" ideas, and it deserves our support. 

Unfortunately, Nancy Pelosi and the Dems have decided it's more important to go on vacation right now than deal with this issue.  So now's our chance to let them know how we feel.  We've set up a petition and a fax campaign on this issue here. 

So be sure to show your support for the American Energy Act - and tell Congress to get back to work!