Three Lessons From the Iowa Caucus Results

I see several key takeaways for your watercooler discussions in the aftermath of the Iowa caucuses, the last of which has received far too little attention.

1. It really was a good night for Mitt Romney. Some people are trying to spin this as a bad night for him because he fell just short of his 2008 showing and failed to demolish a weak crop of Republican candidates. But he also invested less time and fewer resources in Iowa this time around; he didn't really become active until a few weeks ago, when it became clear he had a chance to win.

More importantly, he won in a state that is as far out of his demographic wheelhouse as any in the country. The moderate Mormon from Massachusetts was never expected to play particularly well in a state dominated by evangelicals and social conservatives, and the fact that there’s no one running to his left makes him seem all the more liberal, vis-à-vis 2008. He didn’t dominate by any stretch, but he still won.

In addition, the candidates placed almost exactly where Romney hoped they would. There were two real dangers for him, both of which were avoided. First, that he would finish well out of the top two. For that to happen, Santorum’s and Paul’s relatively energized bases would have had to show up en masse, giving the duo each around 25 percent of the vote, while Romney’s relatively unenthusiastic supporters (because he had spent so little time in the state) would have had to stay home. Obviously none of this happened.

Second, above all else, he wanted Rick Perry to do well enough that he didn’t have to drop out, but not so well that he finished a strong fourth and gained real momentum. As of this moment, it looks like Perry is staying in at least through South Carolina, but his weak fifth-place showing will make it quite a bit harder for him to turn the boat around. This is precisely what Romney wanted.

2. Romney is not the inevitable nominee. Regardless of what the pro-Romney camp insists, it wasn’t a great night for their man. ...

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